Water is likely to be the most divisive issue between India and Pakistan in the future. Or water could, with the right imagination and political will, become the basis for enduring bilateral cooperation. Addressing a gathering at a mosque in the Chowburji area of Lahore in April, the head of the Jamaat-ul-Dawa (and founder of the LET), Hafiz Muhammad Saeed claimed the next war between India and Pakistan could be fought over water if India does not stop “water terrorism” by building tunnels and dams to turn Pakistan into a desert. Saeed’s hysterical claims aside, at almost every official engagement with New Delhi in recent months, Pakistan has raised the issue of water, most recently in Thimpu at the SAARC summit. Water, as we know, has been a source of conflict, violence and war through much of global history. The irony is that despite the many wars that India and Pakistan have fought over a variety of issues, water is the one area where the two countries had found accommodation through the Indus Water Treaty of 1960. The challenge for the two governments is to, therefore, now ensure that cooperation in this respect is not derailed because of misperceptions and misinterpretations. Rebuilding trust over the sharing of the Indus waters could even become the precursor for generating trust in other areas of conflict.
In fact, traditionally the ‘water wars rationale’ forecasts war between countries “dependent upon a shared water resource if there is water scarcity, competitive use and the countries are enemies due to a wider conflict”. India and Pakistan were, by this logic, prime candidates to go to war. What then explains the successful negotiations that translated into the Indus Water Treaty of 1960? As academic Undala Z Alam (who was given unique access to the World Bank’s archives) argues: India and Pakistan cooperated because it was “water rational”. “Cooperation was needed to safe guard the countries’
long-term access to shared water.
What explains this new shrill campaign? Firstly, Pakistan is facing the most severe water crisis in its history as a nation state. Secondly, in the new Pakistani discourse inspired by military thinking, India’s hypothetical plans to construct dams, despite being within the ambit of the treaty, could potentially create the capability to choke water flow to Pakistan. Here, intentions are not a factor, but just the capability that India may possess in the future.
Thirdly, one episode over the filling of the Baglihar water reservoir by India and the alleged “delayed” release of water has been cited as an example of India’s malafide intentions. There are also Pakistani concerns about the Kishanganga project.
In any case, none of these issues demands hysteria, but constructive engagement and a dialogue within the ambit of the Permanent Commission or outside it through a bilateral dialogue. What is also clear is that while the Indus Water Treaty is still a vital document, it may be important to think of ways of harnessing the waters of the Indus basin jointly for more optimal use of the resources, given new technology, better practices, greater scarcity, and lessons learnt from the past. These could be included though an additional protocol to the treaty. In fact Article VII of the Treaty on “Future Cooperation” leaves open the possibility of newer avenues of cooperation without needing to renegotiate or abandon the Treaty. Water is a common, increasingly scarce, resource which needs to be shared for the mutual benefit. We have given the world an example in the form of Indus Water Treaty; the time is ripe to build on this cooperation.
Amitabh Mattoo was born in Srinagar, grew up in Gogji Bagh neighbourhood, went to the Irish catholic Burn Hall School and did his Doctorate from University of Oxford. He is Hon.Director of Australia-India Institute @Delhi & co-chair of Australia-India Leadership Dialogue. Prof Mattoo is Professor of International Politics and Disarmament (on leave) at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi and Professor of International Relations at the University of Melbourne.He is currently Advisor to the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, with the status of a Cabinet Minister. From November 2002 until early December 2008, Amitabh Mattoo was the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Jammu. Amitabh Mattoo also serves on the Governing Council of The Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs and is a Director of the India-Afghanistan Foundation (established by the Governments of India and Afghanistan).Prof.Mattoo has been a Visiting Professor at Stanford University, USA, the University of Notre Dame and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.Professor Mattoo was awarded the Padma Shri for his contribution in the field of education and public life.
